20 | June 2020
By J. Scott Armour, M.S.,
Health Science, Cleveland, OH
J
une 11, 2020: I just posted a little thing on
Facebook, "10001000100010001000".
It refers to the fact we have officially
reached the "plateau". The plateau is sup-
posed to be the time we can begin to relax.
Plateau, in the world of Public Health and
disease transmission means we are at a
steady state. Which is supposed to mean things are im-
proving. However, no one has said what is an acceptable
steady state, or for what. Infection rate? Hospitalizations?
Ventilators? Fatality?
Right now, the U.S. has a steady state of 1000 COVID
deaths per day.
10001000100010001000.
This surprisingly has not changed in many weeks.
This rate puts us on a trajectory to reach a total fatality
of 120,000 BEFORE mid-summer (The United States sur-
passed that number on 6/21/20). So, we will have all of au-
tumn and part of the winter to go. And we won't really reach
a full 12-months of living with COVID-19 until mid-February
2021. That is one month after the next president takes of-
fice! Sometimes it seems like we've been living this for well
over a year.
If this plateau is acceptable, let's compare it to one of
the worst years of regular seasonal influenza, which is
about 60,000 fatalities in 12-months - an entire year.
(Note: flu stats are always estimated, mostly because
some deaths are attributed to pneumonia, which is then
aggregated into "seasonal flu" statistics.). So, the worst
THE PLATEAU? THE PLATEAU?
How I Learned to Live
With COVID-19
— A Month-3 Update —
THE PLATEAU?
